Production engineering and energy transition: comparison of installed capacity and GHG emissions in the Brazilian power sector

Henrique Costa Gomes; Mario Vinicio Garcia; Gislayne de Souza de Lima; Rita de Cássia Moreschi Dória; William Neves da Silva

doi:10.14488/1980-5411.20250092

Thematic Section - Challenges in Production Economics Towards Sustainability and Digitalization

Production engineering and energy transition: comparison of installed capacity and GHG emissions in the Brazilian power sector

Henrique Costa Gomes; Mario Vinicio Garcia; Gislayne de Souza de Lima; Rita de Cássia Moreschi Dória; William Neves da Silva

http://dx.doi.org/10.14488/1980-5411.20250092 Production, vol.36, e20250092, 2026

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Abstract

Paper aims: This study conducts a comparative analysis of the historical evolution of installed electricity generation capacity in Brazil and the historical series of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from the energy sector. The objective is to assess how energy development aligns with carbon neutrality commitments and to identify opportunities for innovation and management within the scope of Production Engineering.

Originality: The study integrates operational data on installed capacity with historical records of GHG emissions in the Brazilian context, providing technical and analytical support for strategic decision-making in energy policies and technological innovations aimed at carbon neutrality.

Research method: A quantitative, exploratory, and comparative approach was employed. Installed capacity data were obtained from ANEEL, and emissions data from SEEG. Analyses were performed using R software, applying descriptive statistics, geographic and sectoral visualizations, time-series analysis, and multivariate methods to integrate and compare the two dimensions.

Main findings: The results indicate a condition of partial decoupling between electricity expansion and greenhouse gas emissions. Although the growth of wind and solar generation helped reduce the relative carbon intensity of the electricity matrix, emissions remained structurally influenced by hydrological variability and thermoelectric dispatch requirements.

Implications for theory and practice: The study advances theoretical understanding by integrating energy supply and GHG emissions and offers practical contributions to the formulation of public policies and investment decisions that promote energy storage, the integration of intermittent sources, and regulatory measures (such as the Brazilian Emissions Trading System – SBCE), thereby accelerating decarbonization and the achievement of Brazil’s carbon neutrality targets.

Keywords

Energy transition, Installed capacity, Greenhouse gas emissions, Electricity sector

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Submitted date:
10/09/2025

Accepted date:
07/03/2026

Production engineering and energy transition: comparison of installed capacity and GHG emissions in the Brazilian power sector

Henrique Costa Gomes; Mario Vinicio Garcia; Gislayne de Souza de Lima; Rita de Cássia Moreschi Dória; William Neves da Silva

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