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http://www.production.periodikos.com.br/article/doi/10.14488/1980-5411.20250106
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Thematic Section - Production engineering towards carbon neutrality: Advancing research, innovation, and societal impact

Modelling the impact of second life strategies for UK automotive battery packs

Tainara Volan; Camila Candida Compagnoni dos Reis; Mauricio Uriona Maldonado; Caroline Rodrigues Vaz

http://dx.doi.org/10.14488/1980-5411.20250106 Production, vol.36, e20250106, 2026
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Abstract

Paper aims: To estimate the stock of end-of-life (EOL) electric vehicle (EV) batteries in the UK by 2050, evaluate recycling and second-life strategies, and offer policy insights for sustainable electric mobility.

Originality: Extends a previously developed system dynamics structure (Bass diffusion combined with a co-flow mechanism for battery energy capacity) by incorporating a fourth sub-model tracking batteries currently in circulation, and by introducing scenario-based analysis with uncertainty parameters and formal sensitivity testing.

Research method: A System Dynamics model in Stella Architect® was employed, featuring sub-models for EV adoption, EOL flows, second-life capacity, and active stock. The model was calibrated with UK data (DfT, DVLA), utilized the Bass diffusion model for EV adoption, and applied Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) across 100 runs for sensitivity analysis.

Main findings: Projections indicate over 300,000 batteries repurposed for second life by 2050, yielding 250 GWh of storage. Second-life applications may potentially surpass recycling if technologically and politically supported, although recycling remains crucial for material recovery and environmental mitigation.

Implications for theory and practice: Theoretically, the study advances automotive transition modeling; practically, it guides infrastructure and regulation for battery governance. Effective management promotes a circular economy and reduces virgin resource consumption, urging stakeholders to explore second-life business models.

Supplementary material accompanies this paper.

Equations

Simulation model

Keywords

Electric vehicles, Battery, Battery recycling, Second-life battery, End-of-life

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Submitted date:
11/11/2025

Accepted date:
09/08/2026

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