Demand-resource imbalance in wood-based furniture supply chains: a system dynamics approach

Jaka Purnama; Erni Puspanantasari Putri; Endang Indartuti

doi:10.14488/1980-5411.20260056

Research Article

Demand-resource imbalance in wood-based furniture supply chains: a system dynamics approach

Jaka Purnama; Erni Puspanantasari Putri; Endang Indartuti

http://dx.doi.org/10.14488/1980-5411.20260056 Production, vol.36, e20260056, 2026

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Abstract

Paper aims: This study analyzes long-term demand-resource imbalance in the observed SME-based wood furniture supply-chain segment in Jombang Regency.

Originality: This study extends system dynamics applications by framing demand-resource imbalance as a production-continuity problem and linking household-driven demand, residential land expansion, production forest dynamics, wood stock, SME production response, and policy scenarios in one feedback-based model.

Research method: A system dynamics model was developed to represent the aggregate behavior of this observed segment, using SME furniture producers in Jombang, East Java, Indonesia, as the empirical context. Causal loop and stock-and-flow diagrams were built, and model credibility was assessed through historical behavior reproduction, with a MAPE of 1.80%, and through extreme-condition, parameter, unit consistency, and sensitivity tests.

Main findings: Wood raw material stock temporarily absorbs demand pressure, but this buffer weakens as production forest area and supply capacity decline. This structural imbalance threatens production continuity. The integrated scenario provides the greatest improvement, reducing final-year imbalance by 56.1%.

Implications for theory and practice: The study shows how resource constraints shape future production capacity in an observed SME-based supply-chain segment. In practice, a combined policy involving demand management, forest conservation, and wood-use efficiency is needed to maintain production continuity.

Keywords

Resource availability, Supply continuity, Land-use dynamics, Small and medium enterprises, Policy simulation

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Submitted date:
04/30/2026

Accepted date:
09/07/2026

Demand-resource imbalance in wood-based furniture supply chains: a system dynamics approach

Jaka Purnama; Erni Puspanantasari Putri; Endang Indartuti

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