Thematic Section - Present and Future of Production Engineering

A decision support tool for operational planning: a Digital Twin using simulation and forecasting methods

Carlos Henrique dos Santos; Renan Delgado Camurça Lima; Fabiano Leal; José Antonio de Queiroz; Pedro Paulo Balestrassi; José Arnaldo Barra Montevechi

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Abstract: Paper aims: Propose a continuous decision support system, a Digital Twin, integrating two widely used techniques, Discrete Event Simulation and forecasting methods.

Originality: With the evolution of the industry, there is a growing need for increasingly agile and assertive decision support systems. Also, familiar tools and techniques tend to change over time to suit such a scenario, supporting new researches on their use in the modern industry.

Research method: The proposed method allows the use of simulation, with the aid of forecasting methods, for continuous decision making, composing the so-called Digital Twin. The method was applied in a real process to validate it.

Main findings: The Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, and Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting methods were used to supply the simulation model in order to test scenarios and guide decision making. The developed system enabled a virtual copy with a certain degree of intelligence and that provides answers to make the constant decision-making process more efficient.

Implications for theory and practice: The proposed method can be used for several operational problems like headcount, production planning and covers different levels of decision. Therefore, it can be used both on the shop floor and at managerial levels.


Decision support system, Discrete Event Simulation, Forecasting methods, Digital Twin, Operational planning


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5fbe41100e8825657df5cc93 production Articles
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